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By jamie, March 18, 2010 8:49 pm

Do you watch The Mentalist? That’s my favorite television drama (and not just because Simon Baker is adorable). It’s about a guy who can solve cases by noticing things that others don’t, and by appearing to read people’s minds because he is so adept at understanding how people think. Because of his talents, he is often mistaken for a psychic, although he insists that he is not. I guess you could say that this book teaches how to be just a little bit like the Mentalist, in that it makes us more aware of how and why we make the choices we make so that we can make better choices (and possibly anticipate the choices of others).

The final chapter in the book starts with a discussion of poker – the most talented players must use both reason and emotion in order to consistently excel at the game. Obviously, luck is involved, but there are also a wide array of information available to the poker player that can help improve the chances of winning. Are any of the opponents nervous? If so, could this mean that they are bluffing, or that they have a lousy hand? Are we taking foolish risks because we have lost a few hands and are trying to recoup our losses without regard to the consequences of our choices?

I am possibly the worst poker player ever. Once, during a friendly game with the family, I got both one pair and three of a kind – I tried to make my face look as though I didn’t have any good cards, and then casually asked, “not that I think I have one, but what is a full house (a term I had learned from playing Yahtzee)?” Needless to say, everyone folded. I guess, in my case, I need to learn the rules of the game before I can concentrate on practicing which part of my brain should be in charge of deciding what and when to bet in poker. For some of you, though, this chapter might help improve your game.

The final chapter and the accompanying conclusion also give advice on making shopping and other decisions – when we think we should use reason, we probably should use emotion, and vice versa. Over all, we should try to pay attention to our internal dialogue as we make decisions, and then assess the outcome of our decisions after we make them so we can get better at it.

I finished the book – and I highly recommend it. The review is coming soon.

Scroll down for other posts about How We Decide:

Other posts:
Review
Post 1: Quarterbacks have to take IQ Tests
Post 2: Emotions Control our Brains
Post 3: One Marshmallow or Two?
Post 4: The Cheap Stuff Tastes Better
Post 5: Moral Instincts Are Emotional, Not Rational
Post 6: Political Pundits vs. Dart-Throwing Chimps
Post 7: Want to be a Psychic Poker Player?

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By jamie, March 13, 2010 10:47 pm

Our brains do not like to be stuck in indecision. They also do not like it when we are given information that does not agree with what we already believe.

This chapter describes a study of 284 political pundits, conducted by Philip Tetlock at the University of California at Berkeley. Because pundits analyze the political landscape and then voice their conclusions and predictions, this study asked them for thousands of predictions, analyzing their brain responses as they made their decisions. Then, years later, he checked their prediction ability against actual historical events. The results were fascinating – on average, the study participants correctly predicted future events less than 33 percent of the time, and the more confident and famous the pundits, the worse they did. “In other words, a dart-throwing chimp would have beaten the vast majority of professionals.”

So why was this the case? Because political pundits tend to be overconfident and they can’t stand to hear anything that conflicts with their biased beliefs. Their brains ignore any evidence that runs contrary to what they have already decided, and then they get a rush of happy relief that they have achieved certainty. Tetlock recommends that we ignore the pundits who are so confident that they believe they cannot be wrong.

Chapter 7 does not just discuss pundits – partisan voters (I’m sure many of us fall into this category) are just as bad. Studies have shown that partisan voters (even those who consider themselves to be “highly informed”), when given specific information that candidates on both sides of the political fence have been inconsistent, ignore the facts in most cases, forgive their candidate and heavily criticize the opposing one. “[O]nce the subjects [arrive] at favorable interpretations of the evidence, blithely excusing the contradictions of their chosen candidate, they [activate] the internal reward circuits in their brains and [experience] a rush of pleasurable emotion. Self-delusion, in other words, [feels] really good.”

I have to say that I am not surprised by these study results. I have had discussions with strongly partisan people, and even though I consider them to be intelligent in other cases, they seem so foolish going on and on convincing themselves that they and their party are right when all evidence points to the contrary. Self-delusion might feel good, but it’s pretty ugly to watch.

Scroll down for other posts about How We Decide:

Other posts:
Review
Post 1: Quarterbacks have to take IQ Tests
Post 2: Emotions Control our Brains
Post 3: One Marshmallow or Two?
Post 4: The Cheap Stuff Tastes Better
Post 5: Moral Instincts Are Emotional, Not Rational
Post 6: Political Pundits vs. Dart-Throwing Chimps
Post 7: Want to be a Psychic Poker Player?

Comments (4)

By jamie, March 5, 2010 11:45 pm

I’m talking about wine, which I do not drink, but I know that some wines are extremely expensive and others are quite cheap. University studies have shown that, when given the price before being asked to taste it, a part of the mind is activated that makes the taster believe that the product is better if it costs more. When the price tags are removed, even wine “experts” like the cheap stuff better! Funny, huh? Another study used energy drinks and found that, when participants paid more, they believed that the drink worked better than the identical beverage with a lower price. What, are we all a bunch of snobs? I guess this means we should buy generics whenever we can, since it is usually the SAME PRODUCT! So, here is a question for you Starbucks fans – does the coffee you get there REALLY taste better? Or does it maybe only costs like it should taste better?

The same part of our brain that thinks it is getting a better product if the price is higher can also be fooled into thinking that something works even when it doesn’t, which actually makes it work sort of – I am talking about the placebo effect of course. If we think we are about to take a pain medicine, that part of our brain kicks in before we swallow the pill. Sometimes this is so effective that we can feel better without taking any actual medicine at all.

Chapter 5 is full of fascinating examples of another interesting phenomenon: too many choices can actually cause us to make poor decisions. Studies have been done involving predicting student achievement in college, and even playing the stock market – across the board, less information leads to better decisions, on average. Jonah points out that this is particularly important to know given that many of us do not buy anything without first hitting Google and reading every possible review on a particular item. I am one of those people – I can spend hours researching a product before I am satisfied that my money will be well spent (an exception? – books – I often choose them based on the cover, and I am usually not disappointed).

Then there is the scariest part of the chapter – how many of you have ever suffered back pain? Well, he describes how doctors used to prescribe bed rest, and that patients usually got better in seven weeks or less (I know someone who had to be on bed rest for her back when I was a little kid – she read a lot of books and got better). Well, enter the MRI, where doctors can now see detailed pictures of what our backs look like. Now, instead of bed rest, many doctors diagnose slipped discs and all sorts of serious back problems, and often recommend surgery. The trouble is, some studies have shown that, when shown MRIs of perfectly normal people who are not in pain, doctors tend to diagnose serious problems and recommend surgery! A quote: “medical experts are now encouraging doctors not to order MRIs when evaluating back pain.” Maybe our backs are just bumpy!

So, what are three things we can learn from this chapter, according to me?

1. I can have more time for reading and blogging if I stop researching every single detail (seriously, I have been trying to start this blog for nearly a year, and then I finally told myself “just start writing already!”).
2. We can save a lot of money for organic food if we buy generic everything else.
3. If our back is hurting, maybe we should do more yoga.

Scroll down for other posts about How We Decide:

Other posts:
Review
Post 1: Quarterbacks have to take IQ Tests
Post 2: Emotions Control our Brains
Post 3: One Marshmallow or Two?
Post 4: The Cheap Stuff Tastes Better
Post 5: Moral Instincts Are Emotional, Not Rational
Post 6: Political Pundits vs. Dart-Throwing Chimps
Post 7: Want to be a Psychic Poker Player?

Comments (5)

By jamie, March 2, 2010 12:44 pm

It turns out that there are times we should NOT go with our gut. I’m sure you are not shocked by this revelation. In particular, when we get ready to make a purchase, we should ignore what our emotional mind says (“Buy it! Buy it!”) and instead let our rational mind dictate whether we actually need the item and whether it is worth the money. Jonah says that paying cash actually causes our brain to sense pain, yet paying with a credit card does not – the payment is too far in the future, and our emotional brain does not understand such delays – I guess a good way to stay out of trouble if that emotional brain is too active is to keep credit cards only for actual emergencies.

Jonah describes a Stanford study conducted on four-year-olds where the children were given a marshmallow and told that they could eat the treat, or they could wait for several minutes while the researcher left the room (and watched them on camera). If they were able to wait until the researcher returned, they could have two marshmallows as a reward. Some of the children ate their single treat the minute the researcher left the room, some lasted longer (by covering their eyes or trying to distract themselves in other ways), and a few were able to wait long enough to enjoy two marshmallows.

I remember seeing videos of this experiment when I was a psych major in college. What I didn’t remember is that the researchers contacted the parents of these four-year-olds years later to find out how they were succeeding academically and with life in general. As it turns out, the longer the children were able to delay gratification, the higher their SAT scores were, the better they did in school, and the less likely they were to experiment with, for example, drugs or alcohol. Their ability to delay gratification at AGE FOUR was a better predictor of their success later on than other predictors, such as IQ.

So would I have waited for the researcher? Maybe. Or perhaps I would have decided to forfeit the double prize. How many of you with four-year-olds are going to test your kids? Mine is too little yet, or I certainly would (and surely will, when she is old enough). Then maybe I can help her learn to delay gratification if she fails the test. Incidentally, I was reading about Jonah Lehrer – he is 29 years old and has already published two bestselling books. I guess he would have been one of the kids to wait for two marshmallows.

Scroll down for other posts about How We Decide:

Other posts:
Review
Post 1: Quarterbacks have to take IQ Tests
Post 2: Emotions Control our Brains
Post 3: One Marshmallow or Two?
Post 4: The Cheap Stuff Tastes Better
Post 5: Moral Instincts Are Emotional, Not Rational
Post 6: Political Pundits vs. Dart-Throwing Chimps
Post 7: Want to be a Psychic Poker Player?

Comments (8)

By jamie, February 23, 2010 12:04 pm

Without our emotions, we are incapable of making decisions. The logical mind needs the emotional mind or else we cannot function properly. So when I say I just “had a feeling,” it actually means that the emotional part of my brain has been studying the intricate details of the situation and helping me make the right decision. Wow, huh?

I am finding it hard to put this book down. At the same time, blogging about it is probably helping me to remember what I read (I admit, some of those books I powered through in high school the weekend before they had to be read have not stayed with me at all – it’s as though I never read them).

Here’s some trivia about me: I used to be a psychology major before I took a break from school and went back to become a sociologist. I used to love to learn about brain chemistry and the science behind what makes us who we are. Then I moved on to sociology and discovered the power of social influence and I haven’t really looked back. This is a good book for me to read because it is reminding me why I was once so fascinated by how our brains work. Our brains are constantly absorbing information that we are not consciously aware of. It’s amazing really.

I’m going to get spiritual for a minute, so be warned if you think academic types should not do this: the book talks about how it has taken countless years of evolution for the brain to develop to its current state. This section, for me, reaffirmed that a Creator had to have been involved in designing our brains – I can’t imagine us evolving from single-celled organisms into the complex creatures we are without some kind of Designer.

One important thing for parents to know: when we give our children praise, we should praise their efforts and not their intelligence. In other words, we should say “Wow – that was great work!” and “you must have worked very hard to accomplish this” instead of ” Wow – you are so smart!” Studies show that kids who are told that they are intelligent are more likely to avoid challenges because they are fearful of failure. They do not learn from their mistakes, and instead try to avoid making mistakes, which actually limits their general ability to learn.

Scroll down for other posts about How We Decide:

Other posts:
Review
Post 1: Quarterbacks have to take IQ Tests
Post 2: Emotions Control our Brains
Post 3: One Marshmallow or Two?
Post 4: The Cheap Stuff Tastes Better
Post 5: Moral Instincts Are Emotional, Not Rational
Post 6: Political Pundits vs. Dart-Throwing Chimps
Post 7: Want to be a Psychic Poker Player?